The Next Supreme Court
By Michael Lang on Jul 13, 2008 in 2008 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN
With every presidential election comes controversey and the speculation of how the next president can and will impact the next . As it stands now, a retirement could swing 5-4 decisions which, as close as that is and seems, can impact the nation for generations to come.
HERE IS SOMETHING TO CONSIDER….WATCH VIDEOs ONE & TWO
OK, now think about this. John Paul Stevens still plays tennis at 88. Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 75, works out regularly in the Supreme Court gym.
Yet, the oldest two justices — half the court’s liberal wing — top the list of those considered likely to retire during the next presidential administration.
With five justices who would be 70 or older by the time the court meets again in October, interest groups and commentators have been talking about how considerations about the court could influence the presidential election. One change on a court that divides 5-4 on key cases could turn future decisions by the panel.
Predictions depend on three factors — who wins the presidency, who leaves the court and who is appointed.
Barack Obama could be expected to replace liberal justices with like-minded successors.
John McCain could get the chance to fulfill a campaign pledge and put a conservative justice on the court in the mold of Chief Justice John Roberts or Justice Samuel Alito.
Alito, one of President George W. Bush’s two selections, repeatedly has demonstrated the difference one justice can make on a closely divided court. The results in disputes over abortion, religion and school desegregation almost certainly would have been different had Sandra Day O’Connor not retired.
“Given the likely retirements, the next election probably will determine whether the court gets more conservative or stays ideologically the same,” said Erwin Chemerinsky, dean of the law school at University of California, Irvine.
The Supreme Court rarely becomes a big issue in a presidential campaign. This year appears to be no exception, with two wars, $4-a-gallon gasoline and steep declines in the stock market.
The one recent decision that could have elevated the court’s importance in the campaign came out in favor of Americans’ gun rights, placating the highly energized and politically effective gun rights groups. The unpredictably of Supreme Court retirements is another reason the court rarely becomes an issue in presidential campaigns.
What if the justices decide to grow older together? Nine of the last 10 justices who retired or died in office were at least 75, and six of those were 79 or older.
No one left the court during former President Carter’s four years in office, former President Clinton’s second term or Bush’s first.
On the other hand, six justices ranging in age from 76 to 85 stepped down between 1986 and 1994, spanning three presidencies. And Bush had two appointments in the space of three months in 2005. He filled them with two men in their 50s — Roberts and Alito.
Although only 68, Justice David Souter has made no secret that he prefers New Hampshire to Washington and intends to return there someday.
But he and the other justices might find it hard to leave the court unless they’re in poor health. Chief Justice William Rehnquist didn’t retire even after he was diagnosed with cancer. His death in 2005 created the second vacancy for Bush to fill.
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