is a specialist in the political, economical and developmental predicaments of poor countries and former director of the Development Research Group of the World Bank

Since the 1960s around a billion citizens of the world, known as the bottom billions, have been diverging from the rest of us at an accelerating rate, a trend which will generate unmanageable social pressures. Most of these countries are in Africa and Prof. Collier believes that enlarging aid packages and programs for parts of Africa would probably be helpful, but it would not be decisive in helping the bottom billion catch up.

The following video filmed at the 2008 TED Conference

According to Professor Collier, Africa faces three distinctive economic problems, each amenable to a distinct policy.

1) The first economic problem is that the region has failed to diversify into labour-intensive manufacturers. How do we help Africa? Both Europe and the U.S. already provide this by giving them temporary advantage over Asia’s markets  through Europe's Everything-but-Arms (EBA) and America's Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Both schemes let goods in duty-free if they are manufactured in Africa.

2) The second problem is that the resource-rich countries have almost all lost or wasted the income from their resources, income they might have used for sustained growth. Collier found that after a few years of boom, in the long term the economic effects are catastrophic unless governance is good. The current high level of commodity prices such as oil, together with new discoveries, present Africa with a huge opportunity: it would be a tragedy if the opportunity were lost.

 3) The third problem is that much of Africa faces high risks of internal insecurity from rebellions and coups. This is partly due to decades of economic failure, and partly because most countries are too small to reap security economies of scale. Africa needs a stronger international security presence, followed by a prolonged peacekeeping in the fragile post-conflict situations.

The model is the provision of external security for Sierra Leone. A few hundred British troops ended a civil war and have maintained the peace ever since. This was so cheap relative to the gains from a secure peace that it is about the most effective form of aid Europe has ever given to Africa.

The bottom line for the bottom billion is that we will not be able to ignore them indefinitely before their troubles spill over into our backyards, shattering the denial which has kept the problem at arms length. Then what?

 

Then what must we do …..and will it be too late? 

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